EURO 2020 BETTING PREVIEW (GROUPS, OUTRIGHT, TOP SCORER)
Italy (1.50) is the heavy favorite to win the group and that’s due to their excellent form and depth of the squad.
This is a side that is unbeaten in their last 25 games (!) with Poland and Netherlands being the best teams beaten and a super tight defense (only 1 goal conceded in their last 10 matches). Mancini like Martinez used a lot of different players in the path to the Euro and there are no big talent the team relies on. Everybody is interchangeable and no matter who goes on playing the team performs.
What’s impressive about them is how little they concede in terms of chance to the oppositions. They always look in defensive control even when they are not playing their best football. They should pass the group on top and might even have a chance to eliminate squads with more talent like Belgium or France. It’s definitely a team that can win the competition.
Switzerland should come in 2nd. This is a team that had draws against the likes of Germany (1-1, 3-3) in September and October and Spain (1-1) in November and tight losses against Croatia (1-2), Spain (0-1) and Belgium (1-2).
Turkey made some interesting results in March with wins against Netherlands (4-2) and Norway (3-0), but it’s also a side that concedes too much (18 goals in their last 9 games, 2 per game) with 3 coming against Latvia. They are a bit of a wild side that can make result against both Italy and Switzerland if they are in their best day. They can definitely challenge the Swiss for the 2nd place in the group.
Wales is a solid side with only 2 losses (England and Belgium) in their last 11 games but none of their wins came against relevant sides.
BEST BET: Italy to win group (1.50)
Italy has been impressive in their path to the Euro with 7 wins in their last 7 games and no losses in their last 21 matches. Switzerland, Turkey and Wales are all good teams capable of good games but with little chances to top the Italians in this group.
Belgium looked the most impressive team in their path to the Euro 2020. They are probably the favorites in terms of form to win the tournament as the reserves sometimes look even better than the starters, as shown in a 8-0 win against Belarus without Lukaku, Mertens and De Bruyne. There is quite some value in taking them at 1.75 to win the group. Apart from Denmark, who will play all their games at home, there is nobody that can challenge them to the first place in the group. Their higher odds on winning the group compared to other favorites like Italy (1.50), England (1.40) or Spain is probably due in most part to the solidity of the Danish.
Denmark could be the dark horse of this tournament coming from a 4-0 win against a good team like Austria, a 0-0 draw in September and a 1-0 win in October against England. Their 4-2 loss to Belgium shows even such a solid side have problems containing the mighty Belgians and should be very hard for them to beat them and top the group.
Both Russia and Finland should not represent a threat for them considering the Russians have lost 3 of the last 5 games against not top sides like Serbia, Turkey and Slovakia while Finland lost against both Wales and Switzerland.
BEST BET: Belgium to win group (1.75)
Despite Denmark playing their games at home, Belgium looks too strong in every position and as a team overall. Even with Hazard far from his best days and De Bruyne recovering from his injury only France can top this squad full of so many incredible talents.
|4. NORTH MACEDONIA
Group C is the weakest in the tournament. All four have had problems in 2021 leading to the Euro.
Despite the talent at their disposal I wouldn’t bet on the Netherlands to win in this tournament. De Boer looks like going downhill since his best years as the coach of Ajax and despite a positive 2nd place in their qualifying group (behind Germany) they don’t look dangerous enough to compete with the 3-4 favorites. The good thing is that they have an easy group here and if they win it a good path to reach the quarter finals and even the semi-finals.
Ukraine made an impressive qualifications winning their group B ahead of Portugal with no losses and should be in contention for the 2nd place alongside Austria. They won against Spain in October but also lost against Germany, Poland and Switzerland after that.
Austria lost 4-0 at home against Denmark in the qualifying for the World Cup revealing all their defensive limits after winning games against average teams like Far Over and Northern Ireland. Ukraine have failed to win game in their last 6, although they managed to draw against France in March.
Northern Macedonia surprised the world with a 2-1 win against Germany in Duisburg in March, but they have also lost against Armenia and Romania in recent games.
VALUE BET: Memphis Depay as Netherlands Top Goalscorer (3.25)
Depay comes from his best season since the PSV years (20 goals in 37 games), he has been the most dangerous man for Netherlands in their recent games and will be eager to make a great impression during a summer window where he could land a transfer to one of the big boys.
|3. CZECH REPUBLIC
Group D has two clear favorites in England and Croatia. England have looked solid in the last year and a half leading to this tournament with just 2 losses in the last 11 games (Belgium and Denmark). It’s also a team that will play at Wembley all three group where they have a record of 9 wins and 1 loss since 2019 (only loss coming against Denmark), including a 2-1 against the mighty Belgians.
Croatia didn’t convince in recent games but as usual posses the quality to easily pass the group stages. Close losses against France (1-2) in October and Portugal (2-3) in November gives the idea of a team that can always pull off a tight match even against the favorites.
Czech Republic could be in contention for the 2nd spot. They have a tight team and despite not having big talents they are a good group capable of good results against better sides on paper, like a 1-1 against Belgium in March and close 0-1 loss against Germany in November. Their 4-0 loss against Italy in the latest friendly match showed little quality and is a bit of a red flag heading to the tournament.
Scotland have less quality than the others but won two times against Czech in September and December. It’s difficult to see them passing the group and should end up in the 3rd or 4th spot.
Group E has a clear favorite in Spain (1.30) and rightly so considering they have lost just once (Ukraine) in the last 12 games played with a 0-0 draw against Portugal and a 6-0 win against Germany. Despite the strong results this team is far from the best Spain but they have so much quality and depth everywhere that they always end up making the difference. It is in general a younger side than the best ever, with talents like Ferran Torres (21) and Daniel Olmo (22) making their way into the team with strong performances. They shouldn’t have big problems topping the group.
Sweden lost all of their games against better sides on paper like France, Portugal, Croatia and Denmark and it’s very hard to see them challenging for the top spot.
Poland have a good squad and in the games against better sides like Italy, England or Netherlands lost in tight matches or ended in a draw. They are very much in contention for the 2nd spot and probably favorites against this Sweden.
Slovakia had average results leading to the Euro, with wins against Russia but also losses against Scotland, Israel and Czech Republic.
VALUE BET: Ferran Torres as Spain Top Goalscorer (5.00)
Torres has scored 5 of the last 12 goals scored by Spain in the last 4 games including a hat trick against Germany, and this could be the torunament where he’ll explode on an international stage.
Group F is the typical group of death. Poor Hungary was not very lucky with the draw with the likes of France, Portugal and Germany in the same group.
France is probably the best team alongside Belgium both in terms of squad depth/strength and form with 9 wins in the last 11 games, including wins against Croatia (4-2) (2-1) and Portugal (1-0 in Lisbon). Their fist game against Germany should be already decisive for who will top the group in the end. France has a more cohesive side but Germany will play at home.
Portugal is one of the best sides alongside Belgium, France, Italy and Spain. They have probably the best squad in their recent history if not ever with the likes of Bernardo Silva, Jota, Ronaldo, Pepe, Cancelo and so on. It’s a team that has the quality not only to top the group but also to win the competition. This is a side that had 0-0 draws against both France and Spain in October, and wins against both Sweden and Croatia. On their best day they can beat any team. They are hard to beat as shown in the latest 0-0 draw against Spain.
Germany is the biggest question mark heading to this tournament. Some weeks ago I thought they might have struggled to make it as one of of the top2 in this group, after a 6-0 loss against Spain in November 2020 and a 2-1 loss vs North Macedonia in March. But after seeing them in their latest friendly against Lavia (7-1 win) I changed my mind. These national tournaments are played in the space of a month and form is crucial. Some of their players look in amazing form (Gosens, Havertz, Rudiger, etc) and the quality is staggering even on the bench. If they are in form they can beat anyone and even win the tournament. I wound’t bet against them right now.
Hungary were very unlucky in the draw as they had good result in the last year and a half with only one loss (Russia) in the last 11 games, including wins against Turkey and Serbia. It’s a team that can offer value on single games against heavy favorites. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them getting draws against one or even two of the sides in the group.
VALUE BET: Portugal Top Scorer: Diogo Jota (6.50)
Diogo Jota has been in amazing form this year with 13 goals in 30 games for Liverpool and he has a record of 6 goals in 12 games for his national team, including 3 of the last 5 scored by Portugal in the last 2 matches. With Ronaldo not at his best in this 2nd part of the season he could be the one delivering for the national team.
|1ST HALF BRACKET
|ROUND OF 16
In the knockout phase dividing teams into 1st and 2nd half of the bracket we can see clearly how tough the path to the championship would be for the favorites. If they top their group Italy would probably have the toughest run with Belgium already in the QF and France in the Semi Finals. Both Belgium and Italy have most likely to beat each others as well as the 1st in Group F if they want to reach the final. Whoever is gonna come out on top of Group F (France, Portugal or Germany) is gonna have a good path to the Semi Finals with the likes of Swiss, Turkey or Ukraine in the Round of 16 and then Croatia or Poland in the QF.
|2ND HALF BRACKET
|ROUND OF 16
In the 2nd half of the bracket it’s pretty much gonna be a tight race between Spain, England and the 2nd from Group F, which could be Portugal, Germany or even France. Denmark will be the dark horse if they end up 2nd in their group. All those teams can play very tight matchup with each others that probably will end up in 1-0 wins or draws that will continue after the 90 minutes. It is very difficult to predict who is gonna go through in such a tight scenario.
BEST BET: Denmark to reach Quarter Finals (3.25)
What is clear is that the weaker side of the bracket will give the chance to the 2nd from Group A or B to reach the QuarterFinals without playing tough sides. These two will be most likely be Switzerland (Group A) and Denmark (Group B). Considering the great results the Danish had in the last years and a half and their recent form it’s most likely gonna be them to reach the QF and pretty good odds of 3.25 they clearly represent great value. Denmark haven’t lost in the last 5 meetings against Switzerland as well. Even in the QF they have the best part of the bracket with either Netherlands or the 3rd from Group F (Germany probably) and in a single game where everything can happen it’s not that impossible to see them reaching a Semi Final at great odds as well (9.00).
TOP SCORER BEST BET: Romelu Lukaku (8.00)
Lukaku comes out one of his best season ever in his career with 24 goals in 36 games with Inter where he was their best player throughout the season. He’s now reaching his maturity as a footballer and he will be the main striker alongside so many quality players providing assists like De Bruyne, Mertens, Hazard, etc. He has also scored 5 goals in the last 5 games he started for Belgium and has a record of 60 goals in 93 games for the national team.
TOP SCORER VALUE BET: Ferran Torres (34.00)
Torres has already scored 6 goals in just 10 games with the national team under Luis Enrique, including a hat-trick against Germany last November 2020. He has played all 90 minutes in 3 of the last 5 games for Spain and scored 2 goals of the last 5 scored by the team which highlights how important he is for the Spanish side. Spain will start with a very good group (Sweden, Poland, Slovakia) and with one between Turkey, Swiss, Czech or Austria in the Round of 16 if they will top their group there are plenty of chances to score for him early on in the tournament.
OUTRIGHT VALUE BET: Germany (10.00)
“Football is a simple game; 22 men chase a ball for 90 minutes and at the end, the Germans win.” – Gary Lineker. As crazy as it sounds the Germans represents good value here. Despite their recent not so great results, Germany always shows up in big tournaments and in their latest friendly game against Latvia were such an impressive side that they are difficult to turn down at these odds. It’s just Latvia but form is form. Players like Gosens, Havertz, etc, look all in amazing form and form always plays a decisive factor in a one month long tournament. Germany will also play at home all of their 3 group games against France, Portugal and Hungary. If they end up 1st in the group they are gonna have a great path to the Semi-Finals, with one between Swiss, Turkey, Russia, Austria or Ukraine in the Round of 16, and most likely one between Croatia, Sweden or Poland in the Quarter-Finals. Finishing 2nd will land them a tough match in London against England in the Round of 16 and a Quarter Final against Spain. Both tough but doable for a team full of so many talented players.
OUTRIGHT VALUE BET: Italy (12.00)
Italy is a sort of dark horse after the top 6 favorites (France, England, Germany, Spain, Portugal, Belgium). It’s a team without a major champion. There is no Mbappé, Ronaldo, De Bruyne, but instead there is a group of very good players forming a formidable group. The defense is strong enough with Donnarumma, Bonucci, Chiellini and haven’t conceded a single goal in the last 8 games. If you see them playing what is really incredible is how little they concede to the opponents. They are unbeaten in the last 27 games played with a record of 22 wins and 5 draws. If they pass the group in the 1st place as they should, they will probably face Ukraine in the Round of 16. After that it’s Belgium and France to reach the finals. This team has less quality overall than both, but they also can play more as a team and being very solid at the back it’s not unlikely to see them taking the game in Over time and maybe penalties. Their record against Belgium and France is also very good in big competitions. They are worth a bet here.